The risks related to Varma’s result and solvency are primarily affected by the result of investment activities. The most important operative risk concerns IT systems, which have a key role particularly in the processing of pensions and insurances within a mainframe environment and in the networked operating environment of the pension system.
In the earnings-related pension system, the liquidity risk is manageable, as pension expenditure can be accurately forecast and investments are strongly focussed on liquid instruments. Varma’s insurance business risks, which are minor, are linked to the sufficiency of the insurance contributions collected and the technical provisions accumulated from them in relation to the pensions that are the company’s responsibility.
Varma’s investment plan determines, among other things, the general security goals set for investments, the diversification and liquidity goals of investments, and the principles for organising foreign currency business. The Board of Directors assesses the risks in Varma’s investments with respect to changes in value, expected returns, security, and the foreign currency business, and the company's risk-bearing capacity in the area of investments, including the development of the company's solvency position. The basic allocation laid down in the investment plan also lays down the basic level for the total portfolio risk. Deviations from the basic allocation are allowed within defined limits. The maximum risk level is measured so that even after a 25 per cent drop in the value of listed equity investments and certain hedge fund investments, the solvency capital still exceeds the minimum solvency capital by at least the amount of the VaR and is, in any case, always at least at the solvency limit. The diversification of the investment portfolio is based on allocation that takes into account the return correlations of asset classes. Risks are managed by, for example, diversifying investments by asset class and item, by analysing the investment portfolio and items, by avoiding risk concentrations, by securing guarantee policy, through careful valuation practice, by using derivatives, and by applying a supervision and follow-up system.
The agreement on the contents of the pension reform in 2017, reached by the major labour market organisation in the autumn of 2014, will contribute to the structural adjustment of the Finnish economy. The main risk of the pension reform, from the point of view of implementing pension provision, is if there is not enough time for making technical preparations before the year 2017, due to the slowness of the law-making procedure. Another central risk is the complexity of the future legislation and the problems it could cause in applying the legislation. These risks apply especially to the new pension types: the years-of-service pension and the partial early old-age pension.
The defined-benefit nature of earnings-related pension provides security and financial predictability. Securing the pension benefits of the young and future generations strengthens the future of the earnings-related pension system. The fact that the contribution level has been agreed until the end of this decade is an important stabilising factor for companies in the current challenging economic situation. Owing to the agreed benefit adjustments, balancing the financing of pensions with a reasonable cost burden seems possible. The increase in the retirement age will facilitate financing in the longer term.
More information about insurance, investment, operative and other risks, the means for managing them, as well as related quantitative data, is provided in the notes to Varma’s financial statements.